The automotive landscape is changing – will you own a car in future?

In 2018, our Government announced a range of milestones it wants to achieve that will effectively result in a ban on vehicles powered by petrol and diesel by the mid 21st century. Their stated ambition followed the world’s first ‘Zero Emission Vehicle’ summit, in which it outlined it’s vision for “all new cars and vans to be emission-free by 2040”. Put another way, the government foresees us driving new cars running on battery power just 20 years from now.

It’s a seismic change, but not unique. France, Norway, Ireland and India have all committed to banning non-electric vehicles, while the Bank of America said recently that the US is reaching “peak car” and predicted much “disruption” within the transportation sector. Times are changing.

‘Significant’ environmental and financial factors

The overall global environmental benefits of all-electric vehicles are incalculable. In real terms, at a personal level, someone driving a car today that produces 150 grams of CO2 per kilometre will pump 1.5 metric tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere every year if they do just over 6,200 miles. And, whatever the CO2 figure, vehicles that are contributing to it now will be replaced by cars that contribute nothing in terms of emissions, thanks to the sources of electricity getting greener all the time, too.

Many of us are already driving hybrids, as well as an increasing amount of all-electric, engineless cars. For the drivers of these vehicles, the lack of engine noise is something they already experience. Those people who have become used to this quieter way of driving may think: “What’s the big deal? So long as I can drive a car from A to B, then what does it matter if it’s electric?”

The financial component of transportation could change just as dramatically as the environmental aspects, too. Why? Because, by 2040, will we even need to own a car at all? It sounds incomprehensible today, but this is a legitimate question being asked by many powerful and influential individuals and organisations. Let’s be honest, car ownership is very expensive. Not only is there the cost of buying the vehicle, but also insurance, tax, MOT and servicing to factor in, not to mention fuel and other maintenance costs.

Imagine a society where we can set this expense aside, because we no longer need to run a car. There are those who envisage us all opening an app on our smartphone, ordering a vehicle, and within minutes a vehicle pulling up outside our home or place of work to transport us to wherever we want to go. Picture Uber, but on a complete, global level of availability and take-up. Disruptive technology may well change things as we know it, forever.

One possible future: smart vehicle-on-demand

Smart technologies and the continuing progress of autonomous, self-driving vehicles further increases the opportunities for cars – and the way we all consume transportation – to evolve into ‘on demand’, much like the current ‘pay as you go’ model many of us already embrace when we consume communications.

Furthermore, with the latest data showing that the majority of cars sit parked – idling – for up to 95% of the time, what will be the point in us all owning our own vehicles? If ownership persists in the future, surely we could share one, with a scheduling system working out the vehicle’s availability to suit our needs? Or, if this has logistical limitations, perhaps we will own shares in a fleet of cars large enough that one is always available to meet our needs…? Anything is possible.

Continental is – and will continue to be – prepared

Continental has been preparing for this possible future by investing huge amounts of capital in technologies for tomorrow, such as the CUbE and BEE – two of their on-demand autonomous vehicle solutions. These envisage taking people wherever they want to go, on demand. The CUbE vehicle already exists, and is set to take to the streets of Frankfurt for real-world trials.

Businesses will be impacted, too. Continental is also looking at how this seismic shift will shape the commercial sector. Its ‘Fleet Management’ concept is researching how things like car sharing will change attitudes towards vehicle ownership. Will hauliers still need their lorries, or will they call on-demand vehicles which can then be loaded up, with robots ensuring their cargo gets to its destination.

It will affect those of us who need to drive as part of our jobs. If you’re a sales rep, do you pay or contribute towards the cost of your CUbE, or does your business pay for it? What will replace company car tax?

And, on a personal level, how will this impact public transport when the concept of a bus (get picked up, board a vehicle shared by others, get driven to where we want to go) becomes the norm with our cars of the future, too? Will we need railways and buses when, effectively, everyone’s cars will have been replaced by a form of (emission free) public transport? What about taxi companies?

For now, there are more questions than answers

None of us can predict the future. But the questions we ask today will at least make us think about the consequences for tomorrow in a way that we may not have considered before. From those questions, we begin to see possibilities. And from possibilities comes a vision. This is at the heart of Continental’s core business ethos.

Research and development of future technologies is Continental’s focus. And the likes of BEE, CUbE and Fleet Management are just a taster of what’s to come.

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